A rapidly changing market
Modal shift is essential
of bus trips are for work or education compared with 27% of solo car journeys
students in the USA rely on the school bus, saving 17million cars from joining the daily commute
kilograms of carbon emissions avoided
students 70x more likely to arrive safely by bus than travel by private car
The case for modal shift
During the pandemic, we saw a shift in mobility back to the private car. If this were to continue as we come back to normal, we would see over 400 billion passenger kilometres per year in North America and the UK alone.
Demand for transport is expected to increase by 30% by 2030, putting more pressure on roads and increasing congestion and air pollution. At the same time, the world needs to cut carbon emissions to achieve our shared goals. Private car transport is the primary driver of carbon emissions. Pre-pandemic, cars generated 70% of surface transport emissions in the EU.
The fundamental issues of congestion and population growth will simply not go away. Crowded, congested, polluted streets are not places where anyone wants to live.
As we transition to a zero emission vehicle future, a passenger taking a journey on an electric bus, rather than an electric car, can save well over 10 times their total lifetime carbon emissions, and that bus can take 70 cars off the road, significantly reducing congestion and freeing up liveable spaces.
Public transport is the solution
Public transport is the lifeblood of a successful economy. It provides an essential service for access to work, education and health care.
Modal shift from private cars to public transport remains the single most important driver of reduced emissions and congestion. Governments around the world are increasingly aware of this and are driving policy around greater use of public transport and funding ZEVs to meet their decarbonisation and clean air targets. Progressive partnerships between cities, businesses and passengers can deliver connected, reliable, safe, clean transport networks that are the backbone of liveable cities.
The cost of buses is 25% of that of car ownership. Affordable, clean, safe and accessible transport provides connectivity and mobility to everyone, opening up opportunities, driving productivity and increasing access to health care, education and jobs.
of EU surface transport emissions generated by cars, pre-pandemic
deaths annually caused by air pollution
Supportive Government policy
Government support for public transport is better than ever with policies and investment to encourage modal shift out of private cars.
In the UK: the recently unveiled National Bus Strategy will provide £3 billion of investment, including support for at least 4,000 more zero emission buses.
In the US: there is a $1.2 trillion infrastructure package including $39 billion of new investment to modernise transport and improve accessibility for the elderly and for people with disabilities.
In Spain: €13 billion of investment is planned by the Government to boost the transition to electric vehicles.
Pre-pandemic, cars generated 70% of EU surface transport emissions. Modal shift is key to decarbonisation and this is going to be a hugely positive factor for public transport in the coming years.
And it’s not just governments that will be looking to tackle climate change. Environmentally-conscious employers will also be looking to zero emission corporate shuttle services to reduce the emissions from the employees commuting into work.
increase in bus passenger journeys by 2030
Modal shift will drive growth
DfT’s ‘Passenger transport by mode’ study shows a modal shift of 1% from car to bus would result in an increase of 23% bus passenger mileage.
The UK Climate Change Committee predicts that 9-12% of car journeys could be switched to bus by 2030, with 17-24% being switched by 2050.
A 20% increase in bus journeys per 1% modal shift would drive an increase in bus passenger journeys of 180-240% by 2030.
Financial overview
Group Income Statement, Group Balance Sheet, Group Cash Flow Statement, Five Year Summary.
